The Market’s Steady Bull Run Continues, and Double 11 is Already in Full Swing

Contrary to predictions of its decline, Double 11 is alive and kicking.

 

October 21, 8 pm, Tmall's Double 11 officially started, and by this morning, data from the "Pre-Sale" event had silenced skeptics who previously claimed “this might be the last Double 11.”

 

During this round of Double 11, known as the "Pre-Sale," Tmall’s beauty category saw 13 brands exceed 100 million RMB in sales within the first 10 minutes, and by the 30-minute mark, this figure had grown to 20 brands.

 

In sports and outdoor goods, six brands surpassed 100 million RMB in the first hour, with 32 hot items racking up over 10 million RMB each in sales.

 

Recently, Tmall also released its top-seller list from the first day of pre-sales on October 14. In sports and outdoor, Fila topped the list, with adidas and Nike following in second and third. Compared to the "2023 Tmall Double 11 Sports Brand Sales Rankings," where Nike, Fila, and Anta held the top three spots, it’s evident the sportswear market has shifted significantly.

 

 

In Tmall’s beauty pre-sales, PROYA continued to lead the category, with L'Oréal Paris and SkinCeuticals in second and third. Last year, PROYA and L'Oréal Paris were also the top two, while this year’s fifth-ranked Lancôme was third last year.

 

 

According to Linkshop, twelve brands in the sports and outdoor category, including Fila, Nike, adidas, The North Face, and others, broke 100 million RMB in sales. Notably, one of adidas down jacket crossed the 100 million RMB mark upon launch.

 

After the first hour, Salomon saw a sales increase of over 60% year-on-year, while On Running and Wilson grew by over 40%, and Hoka One One saw more than 20% growth.

 

Apparel also saw explosive growth, with 3,754 brands doubling their first-hour sales compared to last year, while down jacket sales rose by double digits. Moncler and GUVET surpassed their entire previous day’s sales in the first hour alone.

 

Luxury brands also experienced growth. Globally trending Miu Miu matched last year’s full-day sales in the first 30 minutes, while Ralph Lauren saw a 150% increase, and We11done nearly tripled year-on-year.

 

International beauty brands performed strongly. Within the first 10 minutes, major brands like L'Oréal, Lancôme, and Estée Lauder exceeded 100 million RMB in sales. After one hour, Dior Beauty had grown by 90% year-on-year, Valentino Beauty by 60%, SK-II by 70%, and CPB by 60%. Domestic brands also showed promise, with PROYA surpassing 100 million RMB in sales within five minutes.

 

Key products in beauty also stood out, with top sellers like Comfy Collagen Stick, Skinceuticals A.G.E. Interrupter Advanced, and Helena Rubinstein Replasty Age Recovery Night Cream each surpassing 100 million RMB in sales in the first hour.

 

So, what can we predict from the initial Double 11 sales?

 

For now, the top-selling brands and products are predominantly mid-to-low priced, with a clear focus on practicality and seasonal relevance.

 

One thing is clear: consumers’ enthusiasm and spending power are back.

 

However, strong initial sales don’t guarantee final totals, as return rates remain a concern for platforms and sellers.

 

This year, Tmall's Double 11 officially launched on October 14, touting itself as the "longest Double 11 ever." Extended timelines and updated formats have also made this the "most widely participated Double 11." To stimulate consumption, Tmall offers over 15% off on multiple brands, with official 15% discounts, 300 RMB off every 3,000 RMB spent, and an extra 30 billion RMB in vouchers, and many other special offers.

 

 

For merchants, growth is the main goal of Double 11, yet Taobao’s longstanding policies on refunds, shipping insurance, and low-price promotions continue to cause frustration. Reports show that return rates in women’s fashion on Taobao reach up to 80%, meaning many merchants end up empty-handed or even incurring losses due to post-sale returns.

 

To address the high return rate, Taobao has relaxed its “refund-only” policy this year, encouraging the industry to tackle and reduce misuse of this feature. Taobao has also implemented a long-term appeal and review process for merchants, offering compensation options and increasing evidence requirements for return requests due to product quality issues.

 

Additionally, to ease merchants’ concerns about high return costs, Taobao introduced “Tuihuobao” to reduce operational costs and burdens.

 

This year’s policy changes also include a move away from pursuing “absolute low prices,” aiming to create a more balanced shopping environment. A race to the bottom on prices not only eats into profit margins but often fails to meet consumers’ quality expectations. In response, Tmall is investing billions to boost traffic, partnering with over 200 platforms to extend merchants’ reach across the web.

 

With consumer-focused discounts to drive spending and merchant-friendly policies, both merchants and the platform are putting in maximum effort for this year’s Double 11.

 

For brands, this is the last opportunity to turn around annual sales performance.

 

Sales performance during Women’s Day and 618 events this year was generally disappointing. Dubbed “the toughest 618 in history,” this year’s mid-year sales event saw e-commerce sales of 742.8 billion RMB, a 7% drop year-on-year, according to Syntun data. General platform sales fell 6.9%, while beauty products saw a 13% year-over-year decline. Beauty and skincare dropped 13%, and perfumes and makeup slipped by 14.15%.

 

To win back consumers, brands are offering a range of incentives during Double 11.

 

Consumers have various ways to save: platform coupons, red envelope rain, price reductions, pre-sale deposits with final payments, sample gifts, merchant vouchers, and live stream discounts, with promotions on October 14, 21, 31, and November 11. It’s a chance to “snag a deal.”

 

But will all these efforts convert into actual sales?

 

Complaints about Double 11’s “complicated rules” are common. An abundance of discounts can make the shopping process feel burdensome and deter consumers.

 

A key issue is that the overwhelming number of discounts can lead consumers to give up on shopping altogether, or repeatedly compare prices, only to ultimately abandon purchases. This year, Pinduoduo has opted for straightforward price cuts with a “no tricks” approach, appealing to shoppers who prefer simplicity and a streamlined experience.

 

 

Another factor is the surge in live e-commerce, with brands, influencers, and celebrities all competing for attention. The range of discounts across live streams varies widely, which can leave consumers confused. As a result, brands tend to offer installment payments or small giveaways instead of direct discounts, which may fail to attract shoppers looking for substantial savings.

 

Third, in today’s economic climate, consumers are tightening their budgets, focusing on essential purchases rather than splurges. Double 11 has traditionally been a time for stockpiling and bundling deals, but with reduced budgets, consumers are now prioritizing value and necessity over quantity, limiting their spending and taking a cautious approach to non-essential items.

 

Now in its sixteenth year, Double 11 no longer holds the same magnetic appeal it once did. Will this tradition return with Tmall having refrained from releasing Double 11 GMV figures for two years? And will brands manage to make a comeback in this “longest-ever Double 11” after weak Women’s Day and 618 sales events? We’ll have to wait and see.